{
  "run": "013-happiness-horserace",
  "as_of": "2026-07-13",
  "year": 2024,
  "source": "World Happiness Report Cantril ladder \u00d7 11 candidate drivers (Our World in Data, World Bank), latest year per country",
  "n_base": 141,
  "drivers": [
    {
      "label": "Income (GDP/capita, log)",
      "col": "lgdp",
      "note": "the control",
      "n": 141,
      "raw_r": 0.801,
      "raw_r2": 0.642,
      "raw_p": 7.838063455360035e-33,
      "partial_r": null,
      "partial_p": null,
      "verdict": "the control"
    },
    {
      "label": "Shorter working hours",
      "col": "working_hours",
      "note": "fewer hours \u2192 happier",
      "n": 119,
      "raw_r": -0.483,
      "raw_r2": 0.234,
      "raw_p": 2.5998517449098998e-08,
      "partial_r": -0.321,
      "partial_p": 0.0003754805944153564,
      "verdict": "survives"
    },
    {
      "label": "Health spending (% GDP)",
      "col": "health_spend_gdp",
      "note": "more \u2192 happier",
      "n": 140,
      "raw_r": 0.487,
      "raw_r2": 0.237,
      "raw_p": 1.0868334386651731e-09,
      "partial_r": 0.253,
      "partial_p": 0.002580045106232378,
      "verdict": "survives"
    },
    {
      "label": "Low unemployment",
      "col": "unemployment",
      "note": "more \u2192 less happy",
      "n": 141,
      "raw_r": -0.206,
      "raw_r2": 0.043,
      "raw_p": 0.01402834462370251,
      "partial_r": -0.244,
      "partial_p": 0.003518207807642714,
      "verdict": "weak"
    },
    {
      "label": "Homicide rate (/100k)",
      "col": "homicide_100k",
      "note": "artifact \u2014 see note",
      "n": 114,
      "raw_r": -0.037,
      "raw_r2": 0.001,
      "raw_p": 0.6989663400273406,
      "partial_r": 0.239,
      "partial_p": 0.010536481615571084,
      "verdict": "weak"
    },
    {
      "label": "Tax revenue (% GDP)",
      "col": "tax_pct_gdp",
      "note": "more \u2192 happier (raw)",
      "n": 132,
      "raw_r": 0.582,
      "raw_r2": 0.339,
      "raw_p": 2.5243491457095034e-13,
      "partial_r": 0.194,
      "partial_p": 0.02560031934199112,
      "verdict": "weak"
    },
    {
      "label": "Life expectancy",
      "col": "life_expectancy",
      "note": "more \u2192 happier",
      "n": 141,
      "raw_r": 0.762,
      "raw_r2": 0.581,
      "raw_p": 4.771313865109586e-28,
      "partial_r": 0.178,
      "partial_p": 0.034328269208051,
      "verdict": "weak"
    },
    {
      "label": "Urbanization (%)",
      "col": "urban_pct",
      "note": "more \u2192 happier (raw)",
      "n": 141,
      "raw_r": 0.649,
      "raw_r2": 0.421,
      "raw_p": 3.2520095903182135e-18,
      "partial_r": 0.178,
      "partial_p": 0.03500671672785346,
      "verdict": "weak"
    },
    {
      "label": "Internet users (%)",
      "col": "internet_pct",
      "note": "more \u2192 happier (raw)",
      "n": 141,
      "raw_r": 0.757,
      "raw_r2": 0.573,
      "raw_p": 1.7125518424303317e-27,
      "partial_r": 0.161,
      "partial_p": 0.05657288326347991,
      "verdict": "vanishes"
    },
    {
      "label": "Alcohol (L/capita)",
      "col": "alcohol_lpc",
      "note": "more \u2192 happier (raw)",
      "n": 139,
      "raw_r": 0.435,
      "raw_r2": 0.189,
      "raw_p": 8.980977855274281e-08,
      "partial_r": 0.084,
      "partial_p": 0.326301993275865,
      "verdict": "vanishes"
    },
    {
      "label": "Inequality (Gini)",
      "col": "gini",
      "note": "more \u2192 less happy (raw)",
      "n": 123,
      "raw_r": -0.291,
      "raw_r2": 0.085,
      "raw_p": 0.0010723807041971508,
      "partial_r": -0.051,
      "partial_p": 0.5750865631676799,
      "verdict": "vanishes"
    }
  ],
  "counts": {
    "survives": 2,
    "weak": 5,
    "vanishes": 3
  },
  "income_r2": 0.657,
  "survivor_model": {
    "vars": [
      "income (log GDP)",
      "working hours",
      "health spend %GDP"
    ],
    "n": 118,
    "r2": 0.701,
    "r2_income_alone": 0.657,
    "beta": {
      "intercept": -0.364,
      "lgdp": 1.537,
      "working_hours": -0.00047,
      "health_spend_gdp": 0.0593
    }
  },
  "headline_kills": [
    "Internet users (%)",
    "Alcohol (L/capita)",
    "Inequality (Gini)"
  ],
  "survivors": [
    "Shorter working hours",
    "Health spending (% GDP)"
  ]
}