{
  "run": "011-sotu-rhetoric",
  "as_of": "2026-07-13",
  "source": "State of the Union corpus (sotu package), scored on Aristotle's three appeals by Claude Haiku 4.5",
  "n": 249,
  "years": [
    1790,
    2026
  ],
  "fits": {
    "ethos": {
      "slope_per_year": -0.00105,
      "slope_per_century": -0.1,
      "intercept": 10.323,
      "r2": 0.024,
      "p": 0.014654222595489786,
      "slope_ci95_century": [
        -0.19,
        -0.02
      ],
      "mean": 8.32,
      "sd": 0.46
    },
    "pathos": {
      "slope_per_year": 0.00659,
      "slope_per_century": 0.66,
      "intercept": -5.557,
      "r2": 0.126,
      "p": 8.095161161004126e-09,
      "slope_ci95_century": [
        0.44,
        0.88
      ],
      "mean": 7.02,
      "sd": 1.25
    },
    "logos": {
      "slope_per_year": -0.00221,
      "slope_per_century": -0.22,
      "intercept": 11.829,
      "r2": 0.053,
      "p": 0.0002626718491897503,
      "slope_ci95_century": [
        -0.34,
        -0.1
      ],
      "mean": 7.62,
      "sd": 0.65
    },
    "overall": {
      "slope_per_year": 0.00045,
      "slope_per_century": 0.04,
      "intercept": 6.928,
      "r2": 0.004,
      "p": 0.3347601065467766,
      "slope_ci95_century": [
        -0.05,
        0.14
      ],
      "mean": 7.79,
      "sd": 0.49
    }
  },
  "overall_resid_sd": 0.49,
  "gap_fit": {
    "slope_per_century": 0.88,
    "r2": 0.157,
    "p": 8.343689579612199e-11
  },
  "crossover_year": 1977,
  "era_early": {
    "pathos": 6.83,
    "logos": 7.67,
    "gap": -0.84,
    "n": 61
  },
  "era_late": {
    "pathos": 7.97,
    "logos": 7.14,
    "gap": 0.83,
    "n": 41
  },
  "reading_corr": {
    "logos": {
      "r": 0.255,
      "r2": 0.065,
      "p": 4.69453109955783e-05
    },
    "pathos": {
      "r": -0.394,
      "r2": 0.155,
      "p": 1.1016857829934396e-10
    },
    "ethos": {
      "r": 0.115,
      "r2": 0.013,
      "p": 0.07037499798358873
    },
    "overall": {
      "r": -0.079,
      "r2": 0.006,
      "p": 0.21407883032221173
    }
  },
  "top": [
    {
      "pres": "Roosevelt",
      "year": 1942,
      "overall": 9.2,
      "ethos": 9.2,
      "pathos": 9.5,
      "logos": 8.8
    },
    {
      "pres": "Wilson",
      "year": 1918,
      "overall": 9.0,
      "ethos": 9.2,
      "pathos": 9.5,
      "logos": 8.1
    },
    {
      "pres": "Roosevelt",
      "year": 1941,
      "overall": 8.9,
      "ethos": 9.2,
      "pathos": 8.8,
      "logos": 8.5
    },
    {
      "pres": "Kennedy",
      "year": 1961,
      "overall": 8.8,
      "ethos": 9.2,
      "pathos": 7.8,
      "logos": 8.5
    },
    {
      "pres": "Kennedy",
      "year": 1963,
      "overall": 8.8,
      "ethos": 9.0,
      "pathos": 8.5,
      "logos": 8.5
    }
  ],
  "bottom": [
    {
      "pres": "Trump",
      "year": 2026,
      "overall": 5.5,
      "ethos": 5.5,
      "pathos": 7.5,
      "logos": 4.0
    },
    {
      "pres": "Arthur",
      "year": 1882,
      "overall": 5.5,
      "ethos": 7.5,
      "pathos": 2.0,
      "logos": 6.5
    },
    {
      "pres": "Arthur",
      "year": 1883,
      "overall": 6.5,
      "ethos": 7.5,
      "pathos": 2.5,
      "logos": 7.0
    },
    {
      "pres": "Buchanan",
      "year": 1858,
      "overall": 6.5,
      "ethos": 7.5,
      "pathos": 5.5,
      "logos": 6.0
    },
    {
      "pres": "Grant",
      "year": 1873,
      "overall": 6.5,
      "ethos": 7.5,
      "pathos": 3.0,
      "logos": 7.0
    }
  ],
  "appeal_extremes": {
    "ethos": {
      "hi": {
        "pres": "Washington",
        "year": 1790,
        "overall": 8.5,
        "ethos": 9.2,
        "pathos": 8.1,
        "logos": 7.8
      },
      "lo": {
        "pres": "Trump",
        "year": 2026,
        "overall": 5.5,
        "ethos": 5.5,
        "pathos": 7.5,
        "logos": 4.0
      }
    },
    "pathos": {
      "hi": {
        "pres": "Wilson",
        "year": 1918,
        "overall": 9.0,
        "ethos": 9.2,
        "pathos": 9.5,
        "logos": 8.1
      },
      "lo": {
        "pres": "Arthur",
        "year": 1882,
        "overall": 5.5,
        "ethos": 7.5,
        "pathos": 2.0,
        "logos": 6.5
      }
    },
    "logos": {
      "hi": {
        "pres": "Pierce",
        "year": 1855,
        "overall": 8.5,
        "ethos": 8.5,
        "pathos": 5.0,
        "logos": 9.0
      },
      "lo": {
        "pres": "Trump",
        "year": 2026,
        "overall": 5.5,
        "ethos": 5.5,
        "pathos": 7.5,
        "logos": 4.0
      }
    }
  },
  "presidents": [
    {
      "pres": "Kennedy",
      "n": 3,
      "first": 1961,
      "last": 1963,
      "overall": 8.53,
      "ethos": 8.9,
      "pathos": 8.1,
      "logos": 8.17
    },
    {
      "pres": "Roosevelt",
      "n": 21,
      "first": 1901,
      "last": 1945,
      "overall": 8.2,
      "ethos": 8.6,
      "pathos": 7.67,
      "logos": 8.06
    },
    {
      "pres": "Truman",
      "n": 8,
      "first": 1946,
      "last": 1953,
      "overall": 8.18,
      "ethos": 8.68,
      "pathos": 7.85,
      "logos": 7.94
    },
    {
      "pres": "Reagan",
      "n": 7,
      "first": 1982,
      "last": 1988,
      "overall": 8.09,
      "ethos": 8.57,
      "pathos": 8.26,
      "logos": 7.07
    },
    {
      "pres": "Wilson",
      "n": 8,
      "first": 1913,
      "last": 1920,
      "overall": 8.07,
      "ethos": 8.43,
      "pathos": 7.45,
      "logos": 7.91
    },
    {
      "pres": "Clinton",
      "n": 7,
      "first": 1994,
      "last": 2000,
      "overall": 8.04,
      "ethos": 8.46,
      "pathos": 7.9,
      "logos": 7.64
    },
    {
      "pres": "Polk",
      "n": 4,
      "first": 1845,
      "last": 1848,
      "overall": 8.03,
      "ethos": 8.62,
      "pathos": 8.0,
      "logos": 7.0
    },
    {
      "pres": "Pierce",
      "n": 4,
      "first": 1853,
      "last": 1856,
      "overall": 8.0,
      "ethos": 8.5,
      "pathos": 6.62,
      "logos": 7.88
    },
    {
      "pres": "Obama",
      "n": 7,
      "first": 2010,
      "last": 2016,
      "overall": 8.0,
      "ethos": 8.41,
      "pathos": 8.03,
      "logos": 7.49
    },
    {
      "pres": "Washington",
      "n": 8,
      "first": 1790,
      "last": 1796,
      "overall": 7.95,
      "ethos": 8.68,
      "pathos": 6.96,
      "logos": 7.81
    },
    {
      "pres": "Eisenhower",
      "n": 10,
      "first": 1953,
      "last": 1961,
      "overall": 7.94,
      "ethos": 8.52,
      "pathos": 7.36,
      "logos": 7.73
    },
    {
      "pres": "Adams",
      "n": 8,
      "first": 1797,
      "last": 1828,
      "overall": 7.92,
      "ethos": 8.5,
      "pathos": 7.25,
      "logos": 7.88
    },
    {
      "pres": "Biden",
      "n": 3,
      "first": 2022,
      "last": 2024,
      "overall": 7.9,
      "ethos": 8.2,
      "pathos": 8.57,
      "logos": 7.0
    },
    {
      "pres": "Ford",
      "n": 3,
      "first": 1975,
      "last": 1977,
      "overall": 7.9,
      "ethos": 8.5,
      "pathos": 7.5,
      "logos": 7.67
    },
    {
      "pres": "Johnson",
      "n": 10,
      "first": 1865,
      "last": 1969,
      "overall": 7.89,
      "ethos": 8.37,
      "pathos": 7.45,
      "logos": 7.67
    },
    {
      "pres": "Bush",
      "n": 10,
      "first": 1990,
      "last": 2008,
      "overall": 7.87,
      "ethos": 8.31,
      "pathos": 8.02,
      "logos": 7.11
    },
    {
      "pres": "Hoover",
      "n": 4,
      "first": 1929,
      "last": 1932,
      "overall": 7.83,
      "ethos": 8.1,
      "pathos": 6.17,
      "logos": 8.3
    },
    {
      "pres": "Madison",
      "n": 8,
      "first": 1809,
      "last": 1816,
      "overall": 7.83,
      "ethos": 8.39,
      "pathos": 6.78,
      "logos": 7.69
    },
    {
      "pres": "Hayes",
      "n": 4,
      "first": 1877,
      "last": 1880,
      "overall": 7.8,
      "ethos": 8.35,
      "pathos": 6.9,
      "logos": 7.88
    },
    {
      "pres": "McKinley",
      "n": 4,
      "first": 1897,
      "last": 1900,
      "overall": 7.8,
      "ethos": 8.43,
      "pathos": 7.08,
      "logos": 7.88
    },
    {
      "pres": "Taylor",
      "n": 1,
      "first": 1849,
      "last": 1849,
      "overall": 7.8,
      "ethos": 8.5,
      "pathos": 7.0,
      "logos": 8.0
    },
    {
      "pres": "Coolidge",
      "n": 6,
      "first": 1923,
      "last": 1928,
      "overall": 7.78,
      "ethos": 8.28,
      "pathos": 6.3,
      "logos": 7.92
    },
    {
      "pres": "Jackson",
      "n": 8,
      "first": 1829,
      "last": 1836,
      "overall": 7.78,
      "ethos": 8.46,
      "pathos": 6.95,
      "logos": 7.54
    },
    {
      "pres": "Fillmore",
      "n": 3,
      "first": 1850,
      "last": 1852,
      "overall": 7.77,
      "ethos": 8.4,
      "pathos": 6.43,
      "logos": 8.0
    },
    {
      "pres": "Tyler",
      "n": 4,
      "first": 1841,
      "last": 1844,
      "overall": 7.72,
      "ethos": 8.5,
      "pathos": 7.25,
      "logos": 7.38
    },
    {
      "pres": "Jefferson",
      "n": 8,
      "first": 1801,
      "last": 1808,
      "overall": 7.69,
      "ethos": 8.38,
      "pathos": 6.5,
      "logos": 7.75
    },
    {
      "pres": "VanBuren",
      "n": 4,
      "first": 1837,
      "last": 1840,
      "overall": 7.65,
      "ethos": 8.5,
      "pathos": 6.75,
      "logos": 7.5
    },
    {
      "pres": "Taft",
      "n": 4,
      "first": 1909,
      "last": 1912,
      "overall": 7.62,
      "ethos": 8.0,
      "pathos": 4.5,
      "logos": 8.25
    },
    {
      "pres": "Cleveland",
      "n": 8,
      "first": 1885,
      "last": 1896,
      "overall": 7.61,
      "ethos": 8.34,
      "pathos": 5.7,
      "logos": 7.72
    },
    {
      "pres": "Grant",
      "n": 8,
      "first": 1869,
      "last": 1876,
      "overall": 7.59,
      "ethos": 8.18,
      "pathos": 6.05,
      "logos": 7.81
    },
    {
      "pres": "Monroe",
      "n": 8,
      "first": 1817,
      "last": 1824,
      "overall": 7.59,
      "ethos": 8.3,
      "pathos": 5.75,
      "logos": 7.88
    },
    {
      "pres": "Nixon",
      "n": 17,
      "first": 1970,
      "last": 1974,
      "overall": 7.41,
      "ethos": 7.82,
      "pathos": 7.01,
      "logos": 7.21
    },
    {
      "pres": "Harrison",
      "n": 4,
      "first": 1889,
      "last": 1892,
      "overall": 7.4,
      "ethos": 8.0,
      "pathos": 5.0,
      "logos": 7.75
    },
    {
      "pres": "Carter",
      "n": 7,
      "first": 1978,
      "last": 1981,
      "overall": 7.36,
      "ethos": 7.74,
      "pathos": 6.76,
      "logos": 7.43
    },
    {
      "pres": "Lincoln",
      "n": 4,
      "first": 1861,
      "last": 1864,
      "overall": 7.28,
      "ethos": 8.0,
      "pathos": 5.88,
      "logos": 7.62
    },
    {
      "pres": "Harding",
      "n": 2,
      "first": 1921,
      "last": 1922,
      "overall": 7.2,
      "ethos": 7.85,
      "pathos": 6.65,
      "logos": 7.05
    },
    {
      "pres": "Buchanan",
      "n": 4,
      "first": 1857,
      "last": 1860,
      "overall": 7.17,
      "ethos": 7.75,
      "pathos": 7.12,
      "logos": 6.5
    },
    {
      "pres": "Trump",
      "n": 4,
      "first": 2018,
      "last": 2026,
      "overall": 6.95,
      "ethos": 7.25,
      "pathos": 8.05,
      "logos": 5.7
    },
    {
      "pres": "Arthur",
      "n": 4,
      "first": 1881,
      "last": 1884,
      "overall": 6.83,
      "ethos": 8.0,
      "pathos": 4.5,
      "logos": 7.0
    }
  ]
}