{
  "run": "009-approval-midterms",
  "as_of": "2026-07-13",
  "source": "Gallup presidential approval + UCSB American Presidency Project (House seat changes)",
  "n": 20,
  "years": [
    1946,
    2022
  ],
  "fit": {
    "slope": 1.15,
    "intercept": -82.9,
    "slope_ci95": [
      0.28,
      2.02
    ],
    "r2": 0.301,
    "p": 0.012243683460317777,
    "resid_sd": 18.0
  },
  "break_even_approval": 72.0,
  "n_losses": 18,
  "n_gains": 2,
  "gains_years": [
    1998,
    2002
  ],
  "above50_mean": -14.0,
  "above50_n": 9,
  "below50_mean": -34.0,
  "below50_n": 11,
  "overall_mean": -25.0,
  "max_approval": 66,
  "surprises": [
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "pres": "Obama",
      "approval": 45,
      "actual": -63,
      "pred": -31.0
    },
    {
      "year": 1958,
      "pres": "Eisenhower",
      "approval": 57,
      "actual": -48,
      "pred": -17.0
    },
    {
      "year": 1974,
      "pres": "Ford",
      "approval": 54,
      "actual": -48,
      "pred": -21.0
    }
  ],
  "rows": [
    {
      "year": 1946,
      "pres": "Truman",
      "party": "D",
      "approval": 33,
      "change": -45
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "pres": "Bush Jr",
      "party": "R",
      "approval": 38,
      "change": -30
    },
    {
      "year": 1950,
      "pres": "Truman",
      "party": "D",
      "approval": 39,
      "change": -29
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "pres": "Biden",
      "party": "D",
      "approval": 41,
      "change": -9
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "pres": "Obama",
      "party": "D",
      "approval": 42,
      "change": -13
    },
    {
      "year": 1982,
      "pres": "Reagan",
      "party": "R",
      "approval": 42,
      "change": -26
    },
    {
      "year": 1966,
      "pres": "Johnson",
      "party": "D",
      "approval": 44,
      "change": -47
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "pres": "Trump",
      "party": "R",
      "approval": 45,
      "change": -40
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "pres": "Obama",
      "party": "D",
      "approval": 45,
      "change": -63
    },
    {
      "year": 1994,
      "pres": "Clinton",
      "party": "D",
      "approval": 46,
      "change": -54
    },
    {
      "year": 1978,
      "pres": "Carter",
      "party": "D",
      "approval": 49,
      "change": -15
    },
    {
      "year": 1974,
      "pres": "Ford",
      "party": "R",
      "approval": 54,
      "change": -48
    },
    {
      "year": 1958,
      "pres": "Eisenhower",
      "party": "R",
      "approval": 57,
      "change": -48
    },
    {
      "year": 1970,
      "pres": "Nixon",
      "party": "R",
      "approval": 58,
      "change": -12
    },
    {
      "year": 1990,
      "pres": "Bush Sr",
      "party": "R",
      "approval": 58,
      "change": -8
    },
    {
      "year": 1962,
      "pres": "Kennedy",
      "party": "D",
      "approval": 61,
      "change": -4
    },
    {
      "year": 1954,
      "pres": "Eisenhower",
      "party": "R",
      "approval": 61,
      "change": -18
    },
    {
      "year": 1986,
      "pres": "Reagan",
      "party": "R",
      "approval": 63,
      "change": -5
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "pres": "Bush Jr",
      "party": "R",
      "approval": 63,
      "change": 8
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "pres": "Clinton",
      "party": "D",
      "approval": 66,
      "change": 5
    }
  ]
}